November 15, from Peking University, China Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Albert the Great Wall Futures Co., Ltd's "Fifth of China's economic growth and economic security strategy Forum", to the number of economic experts from the United States high-pressure hose crisis causes, evolution, and how the impact of the Chinese economy, China's macro-control policies to be discussed.
Experts believe the outbreak of the crisis is the high-pressure hose at the multiple factors contribute to the resonance, the second wave of high pressure hose crisis has not yet begun, the correct interpretation of high-pressure hose crisis causes, consequences, lessons learned are very important. Insiders believe that there are four stages of crisis, high pressure hose, garbage debt crisis will worsen in 2009.
Liu: asset bubble intensified, fiscal policy, monetary policy, pay
Assistant president of Peking University School of Economics, Liu Wei, president of the view that monetary policy is that American high-pressure hose over the source of the storm. The principle of monetary policy is to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates continue to constantly reduce the use of capital or the price or cost of money, the more projects and to attract investment into economic life, through economies of scale that attracted, enhance economic growth.
However, behind this function and the role of a risk that the continuing reduction in the use of monetary and capital costs, the weak competitiveness of the market had expected rate of return the project is not very high, competitiveness and profitability are not prominent into the economic life of the project. This has resulted in sustained economic expansion and growth, declining asset quality, with the assets can be securitized, packaged the securities and can continue to sell the asset bubble intensified, with the prices eventually fell, the chain broken. In this case, the national introduction of the economic stimulus package, the result is that active fiscal policy, monetary policy for 30 years to pay.
Mr Song: There are four stages of crisis, high pressure hose, garbage debt crisis will worsen in 2009
Hong Yuan Securities Structured Finance, General Manager Mr Song said: "The second wave of high pressure hose crisis has not yet begun, the first wave of even greater impact than the 2009 crisis will worsen, commercial banks may collapse, incentive is the junk bond default rising rapidly. "
According to Mr Song analysis, high-pressure hose crisis may have four stages of development. The first is the sub-prime earthquake, the U.S. subprime real estate mortgage market crisis; second breach of the tsunami, "Fannie and Freddie crisis" behind the credit default crisis, the junk bond default rates soared, leading to the swap, CDS high adhesive control derivatives of the crisis; the third volcano in interest rates, credit crunch caused by a comprehensive long-term loan interest rates rose, triggering interest rate swap market crisis; Fourth, the U.S. dollar glaciers, global dollar crisis of confidence in dollar assets, the world's reserve currency status shaken .
High-pressure hose for the prospect of the crisis, the CSRC Research Center, King Europe, said that for now, the crisis on the world impact of high-pressure hose system is beyond imagination large, according to IMF expects this All the time the crisis ended, the world crisis of the costs of high-pressure hose will exceed 14 trillion.
Secretary-General of China Society of Macroeconomics Wang believes that the U.S. can not save 700 billion U.S. dollars, after a long time the cumulative subprime giant manufacturing has evolved into a monster, and the current high-pressure hose in the U.S. market has accumulated nearly 500 trillion loans, 700 billion U.S. dollars at the drop in the bucket compared to same.